Monday, September 14, 2009

NASCAR Chase 101: Every place counts

Sacramento, California – If there was any lesson to be learned last Saturday night in the Chevy Rock & Roll 400 at Richmond International Raceway, it was this: Every place counts.

And not just every place in the last race. All those finishing positions in the 26-race Chase for NASCAR’s Sprint Cup count.

The lesson hits mercurial NASCAR star Kyle Busch the hardest. He fell just 8 points shy of beating out Brian Vickers for the 12th and final spot in NASCAR’s 10-race playoff, and all the prestige and money that goes with that.

Oh, what Kyle would give to have just a couple positions in races that ran from March through August. A couple of passes here and there, and Vickers’ spectacular finishing kick would have fallen just short.

Kyle acknowledged as much after Saturday night’s run in Richmond: “It’s not the last two weeks. It’s the previous 26 altogether,” he said.

So true. A few NASCAR teams seem to have figured out that consistency is the name of the game here, not banzai drives to the front of the pack. Besides Vickers, a prime example is Juan Pablo Montoya, whose team adopted a consistent approach in the races leading up to Richmond.

Montoya conceded Saturday night that running conservatively was driving him crazy, but he understood that consistently high finishes make the Chase. Winning two races and finishing 15th or worse in eight others does you no good. That’s the basic math of the current NASCAR points system.

It seems to me that marginal race teams would figure this out as they plan for 2010. They could shoot for consistent finishes in, say, the top 12 and perhaps sneak into the Chase ahead of the hotshots.

To a limited degree, that’s already happening, although Vickers and his crew frankly rate much higher than a marginal NASCAR team. They’ve made huge strides this year. They could be dangerous over the next 10 races.

Along this same line, a driver like Mark Martin might be determined to average a string of third-place finishes in the season’s final 10 races and walk off with the trophy. After so many close calls, it would be great to see Martin win the big hardware.

My heart likes Martin. My head says Jimmie Johnson.

Denny Hamlin is hot, Tony Stewart knows how to get it done, Jeff Gordon seems primed to make a serious run for Cup No. 5 and Kurt Busch and Kasey Kahne are lurking as overlooked contenders. But Johnson has simply muscled past the competition for three years running.

The smart money is on Johnson and his championship-proven team. Four titles in a row would cement Jimmie’s Hall of Fame credentials. I like his chances.

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