It would be
easy to break down the 103rd Indianapolis 500 into a tale of two teams -- one
the seemingly unstoppable juggernaut run by Roger Penske and the other overseen
by the super-popular Indiana native, Ed Carpenter.
But that's
assuming nothing strange will occur over 500 miles this coming Sunday at the
Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Yeah,
right.
And throw in
the fact that this is the most competitive 33-car field in the history of the
storied event, with just 1.8 seconds separating the pole position speed from
the slowest qualifier.
Having said
that, I stubbornly believe the winner will come out of either the Penske camp
or the Carpenter camp. Combined, they
locked in six of the first eight starting positions, have serious Indy 500
experience and consistent high speed. What's
not to like?
Among the
Penske squad, defending race champion Will Power is, in my view, the most
dangerous. He knows how to drive this
race and is a bulldog when things are on the line late. He showed that last year, taking a car that was
not the best in the first of the race and then beating everybody late.
Penske pilot Josef Newgarden, starting eighth, is likewise
a charger with money on the line. And
don't forget about Helio Castroneves, aiming for a record-tying fourth
Indianapolis 500 win, starting 12th and seemingly flying below the radar this
year. Castroneves has long been a master
of placing his car near the front with 50 miles to go, and I wouldn't be
surprised to see him in the mix with 10 laps remaining on Sunday.
But if I had
to pick one driver out of the Penske crowd, it would be pole winner Simon
Pagenaud, whose car has looked like a perfectly tuned racing machine. Pagenaud reportedly has been under the gun for not
meeting Penske's high standards, yet he has shown nothing but grim
determination all month, chasing down five-time IndyCar series champion Scott
Dixon to win the IndyCar Grand Prix on May 11 and nailing down the 500 pole position with a
virtuoso qualifying run last Sunday.
Among the
Carpenter crowd, I favor the team owner, Ed Carpenter. So does all of Indianapolis, with thousands all but begging
for a win for the beloved local driver.
I picked Carpenter to win it last year, and he came up one position
short. I like him again this year. If I had to choose between him and Pagenaud,
I'd give the edge to Carpenter's expertise at negotiating the 2.5-mile Indianapolis
oval.
Can
Carpenter's teammates, Ed Jones and Spencer Pigot -- relatively unknown names
among casual fans of the sport -- pull it off?
Absolutely. They've been fast all
month.
Same goes for
Alexander Rossi, the Northern California native, who won the 100th running of
the Indy 500 in 2016 thanks to masterful
fuel-conservation strategy. Rossi has
shown good pace this year and demonstrated his highly improved oval track skills in the
2018 event.
How about an
"Are You Kidding Me" dark horse?
Watch for 19-year-old Colton Herta, a second-generation IndyCar driver who
already notched a series win in March in the IndyCar Classic at the Circuit of
the Americas road course in Texas. That
made Herta, 18 at the time, the youngest winner in IndyCar series history.
Herta starts
fifth on Sunday, and he appears to be absolutely fearless at Indy, which has intimidated
and broken the spirit of many a driver over the decades. Not Herta.
He just likes to go fast. If he
wins, he would become the youngest winner of the 500 by far, easily surpassing
Troy Ruttman, who captured the 1952 classic at the age of 22.
Now, THAT
would be a story.
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